DOI: 10.1002/joc.5336
论文题名: A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection
作者: Gadian A.M. ; Blyth A.M. ; Bruyere C.L. ; Burton R.R. ; Done J.M. ; Groves J. ; Holland G. ; Mobbs S.D. ; Pozo J.T.-D. ; Tye M.R. ; Warner J.L.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 5 起始页码: 2314
结束页码: 2324
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Convection
; Precipitation
; Regional Climate
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Heat convection
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Wind turbines
; Convective parameterization schemes
; Convective precipitation
; Precipitation data
; Precipitation patterns
; Precipitation rates
; Regional climate
; Regional climate projections
; Summer precipitation
; Climate models
英文摘要: Climate change caused by green house gas emissions is now following the trend of rapid warming consistent with a RCP8.5 forcing. Climate models are still unable to represent the mesoscale convective processes that occur at resolutions ∼O(3 km) and are not capable of resolving precipitation patterns in time and space with sufficient accuracy to represent convection. In this article, the UK Met Office precipitation observations are compared with the simulations for the period 1990–1995 followed by a simulation of a near-future period 2031–2036 for a regional nested weather model. The convection-permitting model, resolution ∼O(3 km), provides a good correspondence to the observational precipitation data and demonstrates the importance of explicit convection for future summer precipitation estimates. The UK summer precipitation is reduced slightly (∼10%) for 2031–2036 and there is no evidence of an increase in the peak maximum hourly precipitation magnitude. A similar pattern is observed over the whole European inner model domain. The results using the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization scheme at a resolution ∼O(12 km) in the outer domain increase summer precipitation by ∼10% for the UK. The average precipitation rate per event increases, dry periods extend and wet periods shorten. As part of the change, 10-m winds of <3 m s−1 become more common – a scenario that would impact on power generation from wind turbines through calmer conditions and cause more frequent pollution episodes. © 2017 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116950
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, United Kingdom; Capacity Center for Climate & Weather Extremes, Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Scientific Development Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gadian A.M.,Blyth A.M.,Bruyere C.L.,et al. A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(5)