DOI: 10.1002/joc.5383
论文题名: Subtropical cyclones near-term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin
作者: González-Alemán J.J. ; Gaertner M.A. ; Sánchez E. ; Romera R.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e454
结束页码: e465
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; convection
; extratropical cyclones
; regional climate modelling
; subtropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Heat convection
; Storms
; Tropics
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Extratropical cyclones
; Future climate scenarios
; Global climate model
; Northeastern Atlantic
; Regional climate modelling
; Regional climate models
; Subtropical cyclones
; Climate change
; atmospheric convection
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; extratropical cyclone
; regional climate
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Northeast)
英文摘要: Since nearly a decade ago, hybrid cyclones called subtropical cyclones (STCs) have attracted the attention of scientific and forecasting community due to their identification as damaging weather systems. Research about them has been so far focused on present climate data. A study of STCs under future climate scenarios has not been performed yet. For the first time, in this work we analyse the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate STCs in addition to searching for possible alterations in their frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change over the subtropical northeastern Atlantic basin. By using an ensemble of three RCMs nested in four different global climate models (GCMs), we find that RCMs acceptably reproduce STCs (except for certain model combinations) for the historical climate period (1951–2000), giving support for the analysis of future climate results. In pure GCM simulations, no STCs are identified. For future climate conditions under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios (2001–2050), more simulations indicate a decrease in the frequency of STCs than those which find an increase. This decrease is showed to be partially due to a reduced presence of extratropical cyclones, from which they tend to form, within that region. However, no strong agreement between simulations has been obtained, and other factors like the changes in the conversion rate could affect STCs in the future. With respect to intensity, no clear tendency is found. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116969
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Environmental Sciences Institute, Toledo, Spain; University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry, Toledo, Spain
Recommended Citation:
González-Alemán J.J.,Gaertner M.A.,Sánchez E.,et al. Subtropical cyclones near-term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38