DOI: 10.1002/joc.5417
论文题名: Forecasting seasonal rainfall characteristics and onset months over South Africa
作者: Phakula S. ; Landman W.A. ; Beraki A.F.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e889
结束页码: e900
语种: 英语
英文关键词: forecast verification
; retro-active hindcasts
; seasonal rainfall characteristics
; statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Rain
; Weather forecasting
; Atmospheric circulation
; Canonical correlation analysis
; Forecast verifications
; Hindcasts
; Model output statistics
; Seasonal characteristics
; Seasonal rainfall
; Statistical downscaling
; Forecasting
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; correlation
; downscaling
; hindcasting
; prediction
; rainfall
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; South Africa
英文摘要: Aspects of forecast skill in predicting seasonal characteristics using global climate models (GCMs) are assessed over South Africa. The GCMs output is configured to predict number of rainfall days at South African Weather Service stations exceeding pre-defined threshold values for the austral summer seasons and to predict the rainfall totals of the onset months of the rainy seasons for eight homogeneous rainfall regions of South Africa. Using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) as statistical downscaling technique through model output statistics, the forecast skill levels of coupled ocean–atmosphere and uncoupled atmospheric models are determined through retro-actively generated hindcasts. Both downscaled models have skill in predicting low and high number of rainfall days exceeding pre-defined thresholds for the austral summer seasons as well as rainfall totals of onset months. In addition to the forecast verification results, CCA pattern is performed to determine the dominating atmospheric circulation systems predicted to be controlling rainfall variations for the seasons and months of interest. CCA patterns for both the GCMs indicate that usually when there are anomalously negative (positive) predicted 850 hPa geopotential heights over South Africa, there are anomalously wet (dry) conditions over most parts of South Africa. The work has paved the way for the operational production of seasonal rainfall characteristics over South Africa in real time. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116972
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Phakula S.,Landman W.A.,Beraki A.F.. Forecasting seasonal rainfall characteristics and onset months over South Africa[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38