DOI: 10.1002/joc.5421
论文题名: Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models
作者: Potopová V. ; Štěpánek P. ; Zahradníček P. ; Farda A. ; Türkott L. ; Soukup J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e939
结束页码: e954
语种: 英语
英文关键词: drought analysis
; Euro-CORDEX simulations
; regional climate models
; representative concentration scenarios
; SPI and SPEI
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Evapotranspiration
; Moisture
; Probability distributions
; Drought analysis
; Euro-CORDEX simulations
; Regional climate models
; Representative concentration scenarios
; SPI and SPEI
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; scenario analysis
; timescale
; Czech Republic
英文摘要: The main objective of this study was to project changes in the evolution of drought characteristics (frequency, duration and magnitude) during the 21st century in lowlands, highlands and mountainous regions in the Czech Republic (CR). We focused on the multi-scalar nature of droughts as a function of the variables that govern the balance of moisture during climate change, such as precipitation, which supplies moisture, and temperature, which modulates evapotranspiration. Thereby, this issue is addressed with two drought indices, i.e. the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), for various lags (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months). To assess the impact of climate change on drought characteristics, a set of eight regional climate models (RCMs) simulations were selected for further analysis driven by five different global circulation models (GCMs) carried out in the frame of Euro-CORDEX. Future drought changes were developed for the two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the temporal evolution of the droughts, the monthly drought indices were calculated over the entire study period from 1961 to 2100. The SPEI showed a higher frequency in the categories of severe droughts and extreme droughts than the SPI, while the SPEI yielded fewer events in the extreme wet categories. The probability distribution of the SPEI-6 under the RCP8.5 scenario shifted more than one and a half standard deviations in lowlands at the end of the century, peaking at −1.65 (with a probability of 10.5%). This meant that severe droughts, according to the current climate criteria, will become the new norm in the period 2071–2100. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116979
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Agroecology and Biometeorology, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, ASCR, Brno, Czech Republic; Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Potopová V.,Štěpánek P.,Zahradníček P.,et al. Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38