DOI: 10.1002/joc.5414
论文题名: Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea
作者: Kim G. ; Cha D.-H. ; Park C. ; Lee G. ; Jin C.-S. ; Lee D.-K. ; Suh M.-S. ; Ahn J.-B. ; Min S.-K. ; Hong S.-Y. ; Kang H.-S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e862
结束页码: e874
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; extreme precipitation
; HadGEM2-AO
; multi-RCM
; regional climate model
; South Korea
; STARDEX
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Systematic errors
; Extreme precipitation
; HadGEM2-AO
; Multi-RCM
; Regional climate modeling
; South Korea
; STARDEX
; Climate models
; atmospheric convection
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; extreme event
; Hadley cell
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; South Korea
英文摘要: In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula is dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by two representative concentration pathway scenarios of Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) using multiple regional climate models. Changes in extreme precipitation indices are investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, a multi-model ensemble reasonably reproduces the long-term climatology of extreme precipitation indices over South Korea despite some systematic errors. Both mean and extreme precipitation intensities for 80 years in the future (2021–2100) increase compared to those of the present. However, the increasing rates of indices related to precipitation intensities are different according to sub-period, season, and emission scenarios. Mean and extreme precipitation intensities of the future climate increase during the summer when most extreme precipitation events occur over the Korean Peninsula. Also, abnormal extreme precipitation can increase during future summers due to increasing variances of indices related to extreme precipitation intensity. Increasing extreme summer precipitation over South Korea is proportional to the increases in convective precipitation compared to non-convective precipitation. This indicates that future changes in summer precipitation, with regard to intensity and frequency, over South Korea, among representative concentration pathway scenarios, are more related to a change in convective instability rather than synoptic condition. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116982
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, South Korea; Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, South Korea; Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; Kongju National University, South Korea; Pusan National University, South Korea; Pohang University of Science and Technology, South Korea; Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea; National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim G.,Cha D.-H.,Park C.,et al. Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38