DOI: 10.1002/joc.5393
论文题名: Estimating uncertainty associated with the standardized precipitation index
作者: Carbone G.J. ; Lu J. ; Brunetti M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e607
结束页码: e616
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bootstrapping
; confidence intervals
; drought
; precipitation
; record length
; SPI
; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Drought
; Financial data processing
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Statistics
; Stream flow
; Bootstrapping
; Confidence interval
; Precipitation characteristics
; Probability functions
; Record length
; Resampling scheme
; Standardized precipitation index
; Uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
; bootstrapping
; drought
; estimation method
; precipitation assessment
; uncertainty analysis
; Italy
英文摘要: We investigate methodological uncertainties associated with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) that result from limited record length, trends, and outliers. We use long, homogenous records from 14 Italian stations to investigate how specific features in the precipitation record affect construction of an underlying gamma probability function. We apply a resampling scheme to the long records in order to estimate confidence intervals associated with a range of precipitation characteristics. Stability in parameter estimation increases nonlinearly as record length increases. The resulting SPI estimates for 30-year reference periods have considerably more uncertainty than those made from 60-year records. In general, increasing record length beyond 60-years has limited benefits and, in the presence of a trend, may increase uncertainty. Extreme events also have significant influence on SPI estimates, even for records exceeding 60 years. Despite using stations from different geographic regions, each with unique precipitation characteristics, we find consistent confidence interval estimates across stations. These confidence intervals can be applied to specific time series to identify how trends, changes in variability, and outliers during a particular reference period influence SPI values. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116994
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States; Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Carbone G.J.,Lu J.,Brunetti M.. Estimating uncertainty associated with the standardized precipitation index[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38