DOI: 10.1002/joc.5394
论文题名: Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015
作者: MacFadyen S. ; Zambatis N. ; Van Teeffelen A.J.A. ; Hui C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 5 起始页码: 2506
结束页码: 2519
语种: 英语
英文关键词: change
; free raster data set
; generalized additive mixed effects model
; protected area
; rainfall
; seasonality
; spatio-temporal
Scopus关键词: Conservation
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Environmental protection
; Rain
; Soil moisture
; Surface waters
; Change
; Mixed effects models
; Protected areas
; Raster data
; Seasonality
; Spatio temporal
; Climate change
英文摘要: As an important bottom-up driver of ecosystem processes, rainfall is intrinsically linked to the dynamics of vegetation and species distributions through its effects on soil moisture content and surface water availability. Rainfall effects are thus spatially and temporally specific to different environmental role-players. Knowledge of its spatio-temporal pattern is therefore essential to understanding natural ecosystem flux and potential climate change effects. Climate change poses a serious threat to protected areas in particular, as they are often isolated in fragmented landscapes and confined within hard park boundaries. In consequence, a species' natural movement response to resulting climate-induced niche shifts is often obstructed. Long-term, accurate and consistent climate monitoring data are therefore important resources for managers in large protected areas like the Kruger National Park (Kruger). In this article we model local rainfall measurements as a function of global rainfall surfaces, elevation and distance to the ocean using a generalized additive mixed effects model to produce fine-scale (1 km2) monthly rainfall surfaces from July 1981 to June 2015. Results show a clear seasonal cycle nested within an oscillating multi-decadal trend. Most noticeably, seasonality is shifting both temporally and spatially as rainfall moves outside of the typical dry/wet periods and areas. In addition, high-rainfall seasons are generally receiving more rainfall while low-rainfall seasons are receiving less. Northwestern regions of the park are experiencing more extreme annual rainfall differences, while far northern and southern regions show greater seasonality changes. The well-described north–south and east–west rainfall gradient is still visible but the spatial complexity of this pattern is more pronounced than expected. Taken together, we show that Kruger's spatio-temporal rainfall patterns are changing significantly in the short to medium term. The resulting raster data set is made freely available to promote holistic ecosystem studies and support longer-term climate change research (http://dataknp.sanparks.org/sanparks/). © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116995
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; South African National Parks, Conversation Management, Skukuza, South Africa; Department of Mathematical Sciences, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
MacFadyen S.,Zambatis N.,Van Teeffelen A.J.A.,et al. Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(5)