DOI: 10.1002/joc.5349
论文题名: Intra-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon and its relationship with the Indo–Pacific sea-surface temperature in the NCEP CFSv2
作者: Shahi N.K. ; Rai S. ; Sahai A.K. ; Abhilash S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e28
结束页码: e47
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; IMR
; IOD
; MSSA
; South Asian monsoon
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Spectrum analysis
; Surface waters
; Asian monsoon
; ENSO
; Intra-seasonal variabilities
; MSSA
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Propagation characteristics
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Singular spectrum analysis
; Oceanography
; climate modeling
; correlation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; monsoon
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; India
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (Tropical)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Central)
; Pacific Ocean (West)
; South Asia
英文摘要: The capability to predict the leading modes of daily variability for South Asian monsoon in the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is investigated. The CFSv2 model forecast at four pentad leads named as P1–P4 has been used in this study. The multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of precipitation over the South Asian monsoon region for the period of 2001–2014 with a lag window of 61 days has been applied for June–July–August–September (JJAS) for all the four pentad lead forecasts of model and observation. It is encouraging that the space–time structure and propagation characteristics are exactly similar to observation up to P1 lead forecast. The model produces stationary modes and the northwest to southeast tilt significantly reduces from P2 lead onwards. The relationship of oscillatory and persisting modes with Indo–Pacific Ocean SST has been investigated. It is found that the SST over Pacific Ocean is independent of oscillatory mode in the case of P1 and P2 lead forecasts as in the case of observation. The model reproduces the observed correlation of Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) index for the seasonally persisting mode with SST over Indo–Pacific Ocean up to P3 lead forecast which is a significant improvement. The contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode to total anomaly over India is large in Pl lead and it decreases from P2 to P4 lead forecast. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117013
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, India; M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, University of Allahabad, India; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India; Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, India; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, India
Recommended Citation:
Shahi N.K.,Rai S.,Sahai A.K.,et al. Intra-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon and its relationship with the Indo–Pacific sea-surface temperature in the NCEP CFSv2[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38