DOI: 10.1002/joc.5340
论文题名: Implications of differential effects between 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on temperature and precipitation extremes in China's urban agglomerations
作者: Yu R. ; Zhai P. ; Lu Y.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 5 起始页码: 2374
结束页码: 2385
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 1.5 and 2 °C global warming
; China's urban agglomerations
; precipitation extremes
; temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: Agglomeration
; Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Global warming
; NASA
; Climate change detection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme weather conditions
; Maximum temperature
; Minimum temperatures
; Precipitation extremes
; Temperature extremes
; Urban agglomerations
; Atmospheric temperature
; agglomeration
; CMIP
; extreme event
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation intensity
; temperature effect
; urban area
; urbanization
; China
英文摘要: In the context of global warming, urban areas are more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. In this study, four key temperature and precipitation extreme indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, are selected to investigate implications of differential effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on extreme weather in China's urban agglomerations (CNUAs). Results indicate that bias-corrected extreme indices derived from downscaled data sets of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under RCP4.5 scenario [representative concentration pathways (RCP)] can be used to study the effects of global warming on extreme indices in locations of CNUAs. An increase in the global warming from 1.5 to 2 °C is likely to exacerbate the intensity of extreme maximum temperature (TXx) and decrease extreme minimum temperature (TNn) in CNUAs. Moreover, additional 0.5 °C warming is more likely than not to increase the intensity of total precipitation of very wet days (R95) and maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day). For the very extreme events (>1.5σ), a global warming increase from 1.5 to 2 °C will lead to extra increase in extreme risk for very extreme TXx, R95p and Rx5day by 4.1, 1.8 and 1.0 times, relative to 1986–2005. Thus, it seems that reducing the 2 °C global warming level by 0.5 °C during the remainder of the 21st century would significantly suppress very extreme heat waves and very extreme wet events in CNUAs. Certainly, the urban heat island and aerosol effects are expected to further enhance such extreme events in the urban areas. The combined influence of global warming and urbanization effects on extreme events needs further study in the future. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117034
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Bureau, Hefei, China
Recommended Citation:
Yu R.,Zhai P.,Lu Y.. Implications of differential effects between 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on temperature and precipitation extremes in China's urban agglomerations[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(5)