globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5315
论文题名:
Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models
作者: Niu X.; Wang S.; Tang J.; Lee D.-K.; Gutowski W.; Dairaku K.; McGregor J.; Katzfey J.; Gao X.; Wu J.; Hong S.-Y.; Wang Y.; Sasaki H.; Fu C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:4
起始页码: 2039
结束页码: 2055
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme precipitation ; extreme temperature ; multi-model ensemble ; performance-based ensemble averaging approach
Scopus关键词: Precipitation (meteorology) ; Climate extreme indices ; Diurnal temperature ranges ; Ensemble averaging ; Extreme precipitation ; Extreme temperatures ; Multi-model ensemble ; Regional climate modeling ; Regional climate models ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; ensemble forecasting ; extreme event ; precipitation intensity ; regional climate ; temperature anomaly ; China
英文摘要: Under the framework of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP III), simulation results from six regional climate models (RCMs) and two global climate models (GCMs) were used to generate climate extreme indices for the present and future over China using two ensemble methods. All the models reasonably captured the observed climate extremes, and performance-based ensemble averaging (PEA) outperformed the individual model and equal-weighted averaging (MME) for the control climate. However, noticeable cold deficiencies in temperature extremes were found over areas with complex topography, and too frequent heavy precipitation at smaller intensities was simulated using the multiple model ensembles. Under the A1B scenario for 2041–2060, widespread increases in the 90th percentiles of the maximum temperatures (Tmax90p) and the 10th percentile of the minimum temperatures (Tmin10p) were projected, with larger increases in winter than in summer. Greater intensities in precipitation extremes were projected over China, with the exception of Inner Mongolia. Large uncertainties exist in the projected mean diurnal temperature range (Trange), number of days with precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) and the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) because of disagreements in both the magnitudes and signs of the climate model projections, and even the two ensemble methods presented opposite signs over some regions. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117041
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作者单位: Institute for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, South Korea; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; Department of Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Reduction Division, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; Marine and Atmospheric Research, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Australia; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States; Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Niu X.,Wang S.,Tang J.,et al. Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(4)
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