DOI: 10.1002/joc.5284
论文题名: Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias-corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high-emission pathways
作者: Fahad M.G.R. ; Saiful Islam A.K.M. ; Nazari R. ; Alfi Hasan M. ; Tarekul Islam G.M. ; Bala S.K.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 4 起始页码: 1634
结束页码: 1648
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5
; heavy precipitation
; high end emission
; RCP
; regional climate modelling
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Rain
; CMIP5
; Emission scenario
; Heavy precipitation
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Multi-model ensemble
; Near surface temperature
; Post-monsoon period
; Regional climate modelling
; Climate change
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; ensemble forecasting
; error correction
; future prospect
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; regional climate
; spatial analysis
; temperature effect
; uncertainty analysis
; Bangladesh
英文摘要: A multi-model ensemble provides useful information about the uncertainty of the future changes of climate. High-emission scenarios using representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) of the Fifth Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also aids to capture the possible extremity of the climate change. Using the CMIP5 regional climate modelling predictions, this study analyses the distribution of the temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh in the recent years (1971–2000) and in three future periods (2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2070–2100) considering RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate changes are expressed in terms of 30-year return values of annual near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. At the end of the century, the mean temperature increase over Bangladesh among the 11 RCMs will vary from 5.77 to 3.24 °C. Spatial analysis of the 11 RCMs exhibited that the southwest and the south central parts of Bangladesh will experience a greater temperature rise in the future. Possible changes in rainfall are also exhibited both temporally and spatially. Based on the analysis of all the RCMs, a significant increase of rainfall in the pre- and post-monsoon period is observed. It is also evident that monsoon rainfall will not increase in comparison with pre-monsoon season. Zonal statistics of 64 districts of Bangladesh are also conducted for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s to find out the most exposed regions in terms of the highest rise in temperature and changes in precipitation. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117050
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, United States; Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fahad M.G.R.,Saiful Islam A.K.M.,Nazari R.,et al. Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias-corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high-emission pathways[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(4)