DOI: 10.1002/joc.5311
论文题名: Changes in extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its association with global mean temperature and ENSO
作者: Lü M. ; Wu S.-J. ; Chen J. ; Chen C. ; Wen Z. ; Huang Y.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 4 起始页码: 1989
结束页码: 2005
语种: 英语
英文关键词: El Niño–Southern Oscillation
; extreme precipitation
; generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution
; global temperature
; Yangtze River basin
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Floods
; Nickel
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Rivers
; Watersheds
; Extreme precipitation
; Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions
; Global temperatures
; Southern oscillation
; Yangtze River basin
; Climatology
; air temperature
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; environmental factor
; extreme event
; flooding
; precipitation assessment
; surface temperature
; China
; Yangtze Basin
英文摘要: Extreme precipitation events may lead to secondary disasters such as floods, landslides and erosion. The Yangtze River basin (YRB), which is home to a large population, is susceptible to flooding associated with heavy rainfall. Many dams have been constructed or planned for in the YRB. Understanding the changing behaviour of extreme precipitation and its relationship with other climatic factors will increase planners' ability to plan for, manage and respond to related flood events. This study investigated the trends in annual and seasonal maximum daily precipitation (Mx1day) using the iterative Mann–Kendall test. The non-stationary Mx1day values were modelled to detect whether such changes were associated with rising local temperature (LTEM), global surface temperature (GTEM) or the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Location and scale parameters were considered individually in the non-stationary generalized extreme value model during this study. Rising trends in annual Mx1day were identified at 73% of the stations studied. The June–July–August seasonal Mx1day exhibited the most pronounced increase among the four seasons. When location and scale were considered, 78 stations and 31 stations exhibited non-stationary Mx1day, respectively. The impacts of both LTEM and ENSO on observed annual Mx1day in the YRB did not have field significance, while the impacts of GTEM did. At the YRB scale, the median sensitivity of the annual Mx1day to GTEM was 7.05% °C−1, while the median sensitivity of the annual Mx1day to LTEM was only 0.8% °C−1. The relationship between annual Mx1day and GTEM was more suitable for the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. The relationships between ENSO and observed seasonal Mx1day in March–April–May, June–July–August (JJA) and September–October–November (SON) were not field significant. However, a significant negative correlation between December–January–February Mx1day and ENSO was identified. The opposite effects of ENSO on extreme precipitation in JJA and SON may weaken the influence of ENSO on annual Mx1day. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117059
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, China; University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Lü M.,Wu S.-J.,Chen J.,et al. Changes in extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its association with global mean temperature and ENSO[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(4)