DOI: 10.1002/joc.5299
论文题名: A comprehensive view on trends in extreme precipitation in Nepal and their spatial distribution
作者: Bohlinger P. ; Sorteberg A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 4 起始页码: 1833
结束页码: 1845
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme precipitation
; extreme value distribution
; Himalaya
; Nepal
; non-stationary
; precipitation trends
; quantile regression
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Gages
; Rain
; Rain gages
; Spatial distribution
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme value distributions
; Himalayas
; Nepal
; Nonstationary
; Precipitation trends
; Quantile regression
; Precipitation (meteorology)
英文摘要: We investigate trends in monsoon and extreme precipitation in Nepal based on rain gauge measurements. We find that precipitation amounts in Nepal vary considerably in space and time. The number of occurring extremes and the amount of precipitation are controlled mainly by the Indian summer monsoon. Almost all extreme precipitation events, recorded by 98 considered meteorological stations, occur during the Indian summer monsoon with the maximum in July. For Nepal in general, we find that the amount of precipitation and number of extreme events per station are neither significantly increasing nor decreasing between 1971 and 2010. However, on a regional scale we identify areas with positive and negative trends. A comparison of the combined precipitation time series with the ENSO 3.4 index reveals a connection between ENSO and the variability in monsoon precipitation. The correlation with the number of monsoon extremes vanishes for increasing percentiles. We investigate trends of upper percentiles of daily precipitation which pinpoint regions of increasing and decreasing extremes. These patterns are similar to spatial patterns in mean monsoon precipitation trends, whereas the median of the precipitation distribution undergoes only minor changes. Further analysis using extreme value theory confirm the prevailing trends from quantile regression for most stations and depict strong changes in return levels. Especially for Far-West Nepal, we find robust evidence for a systematic increase in extreme precipitation. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117067
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Bohlinger P.,Sorteberg A.. A comprehensive view on trends in extreme precipitation in Nepal and their spatial distribution[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(4)