DOI: 10.1002/joc.5205
论文题名: Impact of ET0 method on the simulation of historical and future crop yields: a case study of millet growth in Senegal
作者: Ramarohetra J. ; Sultan B.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 2 起始页码: 729
结束页码: 741
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; crop model
; ET0
; evapotranspiration
; modelling
; uncertainties
; West Africa
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Evapotranspiration
; Models
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Wind
; Climate change impact
; Crop model
; Hargreaves equations
; Penman-Monteith equations
; Penman-Monteith method
; Reference evapotranspiration
; Uncertainties
; West Africa
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate variation
; crop yield
; evapotranspiration
; modeling
; parameterization
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Senegal
英文摘要: The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an integrated climatic variable from which many crop models derive simulated crop yields. In most of these models, different equations are parameterized leaving the choice of the equation to the user. However, the impact of the choice of the ET0 equations on crop yield prediction has been little studied. The present study proposes a sensitivity analysis of the impact of the choice of the ET0 equation on simulated millet yields using SARRA-H crop model over 12 Senegalese stations representative of the Sudano-Sahelian climate conditions of West Africa. Priestley-Taylor, a modified Priestley-Taylor and Hargreaves equations lead to simulated yields up to 19% than those calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. Despite high biases in wind speed, among the tested methods, the Penman-Monteith method remains the most robust to derive ET0 and yield over the major part of Senegal, Hargreaves equation being more appropriated under dry climates. The choice of ET0 formulation introduces uncertainties representing 8% of baseline yield regardless of precipitation changes; for wet conditions these uncertainties approach 30% of the overall climate change impact. The choice of ET0 equation is increasingly important, with local temperature changes out to 4 °C, while extreme changes above 6 °C depend less on the ET0 equation. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117100
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: ECOCLIMASOL, Montpellier, France; Institut de recherche pour le developpement, LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Ramarohetra J.,Sultan B.. Impact of ET0 method on the simulation of historical and future crop yields: a case study of millet growth in Senegal[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(2)