DOI: 10.1002/joc.5194
论文题名: A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach
作者: Promchote P. ; Wang S.-Y.S. ; Shen Y. ; Johnson P.G. ; Yao M.-H.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 2 起始页码: 571
结束页码: 583
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; climate diagnosis
; empirical–dynamical model
; seasonal forecast
; Taiwan
; wet–cold spells
; winter-crop damage
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Crops
; Forecasting
; Surface waters
; CFSv2
; Climate diagnosis
; Dynamical model
; Seasonal forecasts
; Taiwan
; Wet-cold spells
; Winter crops
; Oceanography
; climate prediction
; crop damage
; empirical analysis
; fruit
; rice
; seasonal variation
; vegetable
; winter
; Taiwan
英文摘要: Winter crop losses from extreme weather in Taiwan have increased in the recent decade, with those losses associated with pronounced wet-and-cold events (temperature < 10 °C and precipitation >5 mm day −1 ). The regional and global patterns of atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature (SST) related to the extreme cold that damages fruits, vegetables, and paddy rice in northwest Taiwan were investigated. Cool SST anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) and warm SST in the central-eastern Pacific associated with the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) shared a significant role in the occurrence of wet-and-cold events in northwest Taiwan. The interactions of the WNP/PMM with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Central Pacific type of El Niño led to a pronounced lead–lag relationship with the occurrence of wet-and-cold events. An empirical model was subsequently developed to predict the wet-and-cold event frequency using observed values of WNP, Niño-3.4, and Arctic Oscillation from year-1 and predicted indices of WNP and PMM derived from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) outputs. The predictive skill of this hybrid empirical–dynamical model was statistically significant throughout the 6 months leading up to the occurrence of wet-and-cold events. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117111
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Department of Soil and Environmental Sciences, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan; Agricultural Engineering Division, Agricultural Research Institute, Taichung, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Promchote P.,Wang S.-Y.S.,Shen Y.,et al. A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(2)