DOI: 10.1002/joc.5285
论文题名: Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions
作者: Moore T.W.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 3 起始页码: 1582
结束页码: 1594
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climatology
; Spatial distribution
; Tornado days
; Tornadoes
; Trends
; United States
; Variability
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Spatial distribution
; Active regions
; Mann-Kendall test
; Seasonal analysis
; Southeast United States
; Theil-Sen estimators
; Trends
; United States
; Variability
; Tornadoes
; climatology
; spatial distribution
; tornado
; trend analysis
; United States
英文摘要: Previous studies provide evidence of possible changes to the climatology of tornadoes in the United States. These include a decrease in the number of tornado days per year, but an increase in the number of days per year with a large number of tornadoes; an increase in the mean number of tornadoes per tornado day; a spatial shift in tornado activity, generally towards the Southeast United States. Most of these studies, however, tend to examine trends at the annual (or spring) and contiguous United States scales. Using tornado data over the period 1954-2016, this study analyses various tornado metrics to determine whether trends are consistent throughout the year and across the United States. Trends are assessed with the Mann-Kendall test and their slopes with the Theil-Sen estimator. The annual analyses indicate that the number of tornadoes per year declined in theWest, North Great Plains, South Great Plains, and Midwest regions, but increased in the Southeast. The decreasing/increasing tendencies in the South Great Plains/Southeast led to a reversal of the most active region - the South Great Plains had the greatest median tornado frequency early in the study period whereas the Southeast had the greatest in the middle and late periods. Annual analyses also indicate that the previously reported decline in the number of tornado days per year and the increase in the mean number of tornadoes per tornado day per year are generally present across the United States. Seasonal analyses suggest that the proportion of tornadoes occurring in the contiguous United States in summer is decreasing whereas the proportion occurring in fall is increasing. This is especially apparent in the Southeast. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117124
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Planning, Towson University, 8000 York Road, Towson, MD 21252, United States
Recommended Citation:
Moore T.W.. Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(3)