DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.014
论文题名: Effect of climate change on the vulnerability of a socio-ecological system in an arid area
作者: Liu H.-L. ; Willems P. ; Bao A.-M. ; Wang L. ; Chen X.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2016
卷: 137 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 9
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arid area
; Climate change
; Socio-ecological systems
; Vulnerability
Scopus关键词: Arid regions
; Decision making
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Sensitivity analysis
; Sustainable development
; Arid area
; Evaluation framework
; Land desertification
; Mountainous area
; Natural environments
; research methods
; Socio-ecological systems
; Vulnerability
; Climate change
英文摘要: The vulnerability of arid areas threatens ecosystems and human existence. With climate change and increasing human activities, addressing this vulnerability has become an important concern. To support this objective, we present a complex index system to analyze vulnerability at a regional scale with a 1 km × 1 km resolution. Based on the evaluation framework, which includes natural resources, the natural environment and the social economy, the results indicate that an ecosystem in a mountainous area is more vulnerable than it is in a plain. Land desertification will worsen from 2014 to 2099 under the RCP4.5 scenarios and improve slightly under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, while the suitable land for agriculture increased slightly under the three scenarios. In addition, a regional sensitivity analysis of vulnerability to climate change shows that the improving region and the worsening region will occupy 1.30% and 74.51%, respectively. In view of this, the socio-ecological system will undergo a worsening trend as a whole. Finally, we simplified how to solve the problem of a socio-ecological system in the future. This research method and results would generate new insights with respect to planning for sustainable development and provide a reference for decision-making. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84951154837&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.12.014&partnerID=40&md5=7e050b6ab845f07e00a09c2b912d6b58
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11712
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Water Resources and Architectural Engineering College of Shihezi University, Shihezi, China
Recommended Citation:
Liu H.-L.,Willems P.,Bao A.-M.,et al. Effect of climate change on the vulnerability of a socio-ecological system in an arid area[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016-01-01,137.