DOI: 10.1002/joc.5255
论文题名: An event synchronization method to link heavy rainfall events and large-scale atmospheric circulation features
作者: Conticello F. ; Cioffi F. ; Merz B. ; Lall U.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 3 起始页码: 1421
结束页码: 1437
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric river
; Event synchronization
; Flood
; Geopotential features
; Heavy precipitation
; Self-organized map
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Climatology
; Digital storage
; Floods
; Gages
; Intelligent robots
; Rain
; Regression analysis
; Synchronization
; Tropics
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric variables
; Event synchronization
; Geopotentials
; Heavy precipitation
; Logistic Regression modeling
; Nonparametric methods
; Self-organized map
; Atmospheric humidity
; artificial neural network
; atmospheric circulation
; flood
; geopotential
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; raingauge
; Italy
; Lazio
英文摘要: Heavy rainfall, floods and other hydroclimatic extremes may be related to specific states of organization of the atmospheric circulation. The identification of these states and their linkage to local extremes could facilitate a physically meaningful quantification of local extremes in future climates and could allow forecasting extremes conditioned on the large-scale atmospheric state. A novel methodology is presented that combines non-linear, non-parametric methods to link heavy precipitation events (HPEs) to atmospheric circulation states. Using daily rainfall data for the period 1951–2015 from 37 gauges in the Lazio region in Italy, HPEs are defined. For the same period, two atmospheric variables, namely, the 850 hPa geopotential height field and the integrated vapour transport (IVT), are derived from reanalysis data. The geopotential configurations driving heavy precipitation in the region are identified by combing self-organized maps and event synchronization. First, a finite number of representative geopotential configurations is identified. Rainfall gauges are pooled into clusters, which show synchronized occurrence of heavy precipitation. Furthermore, geopotential configurations are identified, which tend to drive HPEs. For these geopotential states, the probability of HPE occurrence as a function of IVT is calculated through a local logistic regression model. Finally, it is explored whether the identified patterns are related to the occurrence of atmospheric rivers, which govern the atmospheric humidity transport from the tropics and subtropics to Europe. The relation found demonstrates the reliability of the proposed methodology. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117141
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, La Sapienza Università di Roma, Italy; Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University of New YorkNY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Conticello F.,Cioffi F.,Merz B.,et al. An event synchronization method to link heavy rainfall events and large-scale atmospheric circulation features[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(3)