DOI: 10.1002/joc.5263
论文题名: Extreme reversals in successive winter season precipitation anomalies across the western United States, 1895-2015
作者: Marston M.L. ; Ellis A.W.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 3 起始页码: 1520
结束页码: 1532
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Hydroclimate extremes
; Precipitation variability
; Western United States
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Drought
; Extreme precipitation
; Hydroclimate extremes
; Precipitation anomalies
; Precipitation variability
; Proactive management
; Southern oscillation
; Statistical measures
; Western United States
; Climatology
; climate change
; climatology
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; winter
; United States
英文摘要: Extreme precipitation studies commonly link anomalies to specific episodes of drought or flooding, while studies of precipitation volatility typically employ statistical measures of variability. This study addresses the concept of an extreme precipitation reversal (EPR), defined as an unusually wet or dry period that precedes a large precipitation anomaly of opposite sign, or more specifically the difference in the percentiles of precipitation for consecutive periods. The focus of this study is EPRs over the past 121 years for the hydrologically critical winter season across the Western United States. Results show that EPR values are of a greater magnitude during the second half of the historical record than during the first half, indicating increased volatility in extreme winter-to-winter precipitation. Historically, the direction of reversals (wet-to-dry or dry-to-wet) corresponds to a similar reversal in the nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, although EPRs are not systematically aligned with extreme ENSO reversals. While a greater frequency and intensity of winter season EPRs in recent years is potentially problematic for water managers, the relationship with ENSO may afford proactive management and mitigation of the impacts. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117150
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Marston M.L.,Ellis A.W.. Extreme reversals in successive winter season precipitation anomalies across the western United States, 1895-2015[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(3)