DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0389.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85060981666
论文题名: Assessing seasonal predictability sources and windows of high predictability in the climate forecast system, version 2
作者: Miller D.E. ; Wang Z.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 4 起始页码: 1307
结束页码: 1326
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; Forecast verification/skill
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Signal to noise ratio
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Anomaly correlations
; ENSO
; Forecast verification/skill
; Geo-potential heights
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Seasonal forecasting
; Stratospheric polar vortex
; Climatology
英文摘要: The representation of ENSO and NAO are examined in the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), reforecasts with a focus on the physical processes related to teleconnections and predictability. CFSv2 predicts ENSO well, but an eastward shift of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evident. Although it appears minor on the global scale, the shift in convection and the large-scale wave train affects the model prediction of regional climate. In contrast, NAO is predicted poorly. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) between the model ensemble mean and the observation is 0.27 during 1982-2010, and the ensemble spread is large. The representation of three sources of NAO predictability-SST, the stratospheric polar vortex, and the Arctic sea ice concentration-is investigated. It is found that the link between tropical Pacific SST and NAO is not well represented in CFSv2, and that the tropospheric- stratospheric interactions are too weak, both contributing to the poor prediction of NAO. Additionally, the impact of ENSO and NAO on prediction skill of CFSv2 in boreal winter is analyzed in terms of the spatial ACC of geopotential height. Active ENSO events exhibit larger prediction skill than neutral years, especially during the ENSO+/NAO2 and ENSO-/NAO+ winters. Spatial patterns of prediction skill are also examined, and larger skill of geopotential height and 2-m air temperature is found outlined by the nodes of the PNA pattern, consistent with the large signal-to-noise ratios associated with the ENSO teleconnection. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117213
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Miller D.E.,Wang Z.. Assessing seasonal predictability sources and windows of high predictability in the climate forecast system, version 2[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(4)