DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85060545161
论文题名: A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the silk road pattern
作者: Stephan C.C. ; Klingaman N.P. ; Turner A.G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 3 起始页码: 717
结束页码: 736
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal variability
; Dynamics
; Monsoons
; Oceanic variability
; Rossby waves
; Teleconnections
Scopus关键词: Dynamics
; Mechanical waves
; Ocean currents
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Silk
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Decadal variability
; Monsoons
; Oceanic variabilities
; Rossby wave
; Teleconnections
; Roads and streets
英文摘要: The Silk Road pattern (SRP) teleconnection manifests in summer over Eurasia, where it is associated with substantial temperature and precipitation anomalies. The SRP varies on interannual and decadal scales; reanalyses show an increase in its decadal variability around the mid-1970s. Understanding what drives this decadal variability is particularly important, because contemporary seasonal prediction models struggle to predict the phase of the SRP. Based on analysis of observations and multiple targeted numerical experiments, this study proposes a mechanism for decadal SRP variability. Causal effect network analysis confirms a positive feedback loop between the eastern portion of the SRP pattern and vertical motion over India on synoptic time scales. Anomalies over a larger region of subtropical South Asia can reinforce a background state that projects onto the positive or negative SRP through this mechanism. This effect is isolated and confirmed in targeted numerical simulations. The transition from weak to strong decadal variability in the mid-1970s is consistent with more spatially coherent interannual precipitation variability over subtropical South Asia. Furthermore, results suggest that oceanic variability does not directly force the SRP. Nevertheless, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific may indirectly affect the SRP by modulating South Asian rainfall on decadal time scales. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117227
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Stephan C.C.,Klingaman N.P.,Turner A.G.. A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the silk road pattern[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(3)