DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0353.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85059649626
论文题名: High-resolution seeded simulations of western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones in two future extreme climates
作者: Mclay J.G. ; Hendricks E.A. ; Moskaitis J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 2 起始页码: 309
结束页码: 334
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere
; Climate change
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Mesoscale models
; Numerical analysis/modeling
; Pacific Ocean
Scopus关键词: Boundary layers
; Climate change
; Earth atmosphere
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Sensitivity analysis
; Storms
; Tropics
; Weather forecasting
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled ocean atmosphere mesoscale prediction system
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Meso-scale models
; Numerical analysis/modeling
; Numerical weather prediction models
; Pacific ocean
; Western North Pacific
; Climate models
; climate change
; computer simulation
; extreme event
; hurricane
; mesoscale meteorology
; numerical model
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.5144 m s -1 ) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at > 64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117244
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Mclay J.G.,Hendricks E.A.,Moskaitis J.. High-resolution seeded simulations of western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones in two future extreme climates[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(2)