DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.03.005
论文题名: Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries
作者: Pattnayak K.C. ; Kar S.C. ; Dalal M. ; Pattnayak R.K.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2017
卷: 152 起始页码: 152
结束页码: 166
语种: 英语
英文关键词: BIMSTEC
; Climate change
; CMIP5
; Model uncertainties and climate projections
; RCP4.5
; RCP8.5
; Representative concentration pathways
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Rain
; Uncertainty analysis
; BIMSTEC
; Climate projection
; CMIP5
; RCP4.5
; RCP8.5
; Representative concentration pathways
; Climate models
英文摘要: Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85016442726&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2017.03.005&partnerID=40&md5=44afd03ecb723793e81518878713f251
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11730
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
Recommended Citation:
Pattnayak K.C.,Kar S.C.,Dalal M.,et al. Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2017-01-01,152.