| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.002
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| 论文题名: | ENSO response to external forcing in CMIP5 simulations of the last millennium |
| 作者: | Le T.
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| 刊名: | Global and Planetary Change
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| ISSN: | 0921-8181
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 148 | | 起始页码: | 105
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| 结束页码: | 112
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | ENSO
; Granger causality
; Greenhouse gases radiative forcing
; Last millennium
; Solar forcing
; Volcanic forcing
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Statistical tests
; Volcanoes
; ENSO
; Granger Causality
; Last millenniums
; Radiative forcings
; Solar forcing
; Volcanic forcing
; Climatology
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| 英文摘要: | The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant mode of interannual climate variability, but its response to external climate forcings remains uncertain. Past studies have limitations including the use of short datasets and the uncertainty contained in reconstructions or simulations of past ENSO variations. To improve our understanding on ENSO variations, it is important to examine its response to these forcings by using multi model simulations since they provide longer datasets and help improving the statistical significance of the results. In this study, Granger causality test is applied to investigate the influence of external forcings on ENSO by using past millennium simulations (period 850–1850 CE) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The results show robust influence of volcanic forcing to ENSO during preindustrial times of last millennium. The response of ENSO to solar forcing is more likely to be weak. Detection of GHGs variations signal in ENSO response is not significant. However, this study also indicates that there are uncertainties in the responses of ENSO to solar forcing and GHGs radiative forcing. The possibility of the true causal connection between Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) or GHGs radiative forcing and ENSO cannot be rejected at 95% significance level. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85007605034&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2016.12.002&partnerID=40&md5=a6848c91d6e18ae25ab2c480195aae05
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11777
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Le T.. ENSO response to external forcing in CMIP5 simulations of the last millennium[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2017-01-01,148.
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