Background: Evaluation of short-term mortality displacement is essential to accurately estimate the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on public health.
Objectives: We quantified mortality displacement by estimating single-day lag effects and cumulative effects of air pollutants on mortality using distributed lag models.
Methods: We performed a daily time series of nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2000 and 2011. Effects of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) were estimated in Poisson generalized additive models. Single-day lag effects of air pollutant exposure were estimated for 0-, 1- and 2-day lags. Distributed lag models with lags of 0–10, 0–20 and 0–30 days were used to assess mortality displacement and potential cumulative exposure effects.
Results: PM10, NO2 and CO were significantly associated with nonaccidental and cause-specific deaths in both single-day lag and cumulative lag models. Cumulative effect estimates for 0–10 days were larger than estimates for single-day lags. Cumulative effect estimates for 0–30 days were essentially zero for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths but remained elevated for respiratory and cancer deaths.
Conclusions: We found evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths in elderly residents of São Paulo. We did not find evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for respiratory or cancer deaths.
1Institute of Social Medicine, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 2Brazilian National Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 3Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands; 4Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Amine Farias Costa,1,2 Gerard Hoek,et al. Air Pollution and Deaths among Elderly Residents of São Paulo, Brazil: An Analysis of Mortality Displacement[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,2017-01-01,Volume 125(Issue 3):349