globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.11.016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85057837712
论文题名:
A comparison of the rainfall forecasting skills of the WRF ensemble forecasting system using SPCPT and other cumulus parameterization error representation schemes
作者: Wu T.; Min J.; Wu S.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2019
卷: 218
起始页码: 160
结束页码: 175
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cumulus parameterization ; Ensemble forecasts ; Precipitation ; Stochastic perturbed parameterization tendency
Scopus关键词: Clouds ; Errors ; Gaussian noise (electronic) ; Mean square error ; Parameterization ; Precipitation (chemical) ; Rain ; Stochastic systems ; Cumulus parameterization ; Cumulus parameterization schemes ; Ensemble forecasts ; Physical parameterization ; Precipitation predictions ; Root mean square errors ; Stochastic perturbed parameterization tendency ; Weather research and forecasting models ; Weather forecasting ; comparative study ; cumulus ; ensemble forecasting ; error analysis ; parameterization ; rainfall ; stochasticity ; weather forecasting ; Southeast Asia
英文摘要: The scientific community mainly uses ensemble systems to represent various sources of uncertainties and to produce better forecasts. The inability to choose accurate initial conditions leads to failed forecasts due to the well-known butterfly effect; however, in modern weather models, researchers have paid more attention to inadequacies in the sense of physical parameterization schemes and other dynamic processes. In this study, the uncertainties caused by cumulus parameterization are represented by the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendency (SPPT) scheme, and the results are compared with those of classic schemes, including the multi cumulus parameterization scheme, the parameter-perturbed scheme, and the Gaussian-noise-perturbed tendency scheme. The impacts of these various schemes on the precipitation predictions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared for Southeast Asia. The results using the stochastic perturbed cumulus parameterization tendency (SPCPT) perturbation scheme are contrasted with those of the total parameterization tendency perturbation scheme. Compared to the other schemes, the multi cumulus parameterization scheme has better Brier skill scores (BSS) and greater spreads. However, the SPCPT scheme shows significant improvements in the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Gerrity skill score (GSS) for rainfall prediction. This result also implies that the noise pattern is critical to the ensemble system; thus, using a single error representation scheme may be insufficient to estimate the error in the cumulus parameterization process. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122343
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wu T.,Min J.,Wu S.. A comparison of the rainfall forecasting skills of the WRF ensemble forecasting system using SPCPT and other cumulus parameterization error representation schemes[J]. Atmospheric Research,2019-01-01,218
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