Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85046030623
论文题名: Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs
作者: Stryhal J. ; Huth R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期: 2019-01-02 起始页码: 1063
结束页码: 1075
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Circulation classifications
; CMIP5
; Global climate models
; Projections
英文摘要: Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122426
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, Prague 2, 128 43, Czech Republic; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II, Prague 4, 141 31, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Stryhal J.,Huth R.. Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-01-02)