Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044939025
论文题名: Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches
作者: Crimp S. ; Jin H. ; Kokic P. ; Bakar S. ; Nicholls N.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期: 2019-01-02 起始页码: 1247
结束页码: 1262
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Daily minimum temperatures
; Frost
; Future projections
; Quantile matching
; Spatio-temporal modelling
英文摘要: Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the “raw” GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the “raw” GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the “raw” GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122439
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; CSIRO DATA61ACT, Australia; Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; CSR&M, Australian National UniversityACT, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Crimp S.,Jin H.,Kokic P.,et al. Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-01-02)