Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047395231
论文题名: Achievability of the Paris Agreement targets in the EU: demand-side reduction potentials in a carbon budget perspective
作者: Duscha V. ; Denishchenkova A. ; Wachsmuth J.
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 14693062
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期: 2 起始页码: 161
结束页码: 174
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon budget
; carbon capture and storage
; cumulative emissions
; demand side
; Europe
; Paris Agreement
Scopus关键词: carbon budget
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; carbon sequestration
; demand-side management
; emission control
; European Union
; Europe
英文摘要: Limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C is an integral part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these aims, cumulative global carbon emissions after 2016 should not exceed 940–390 Gt of CO2 (for the 2°C target) and 167–−48 Gt of CO2 (for the 1.5°C target) by the end of the century. This paper analyses the EU’s cumulative carbon emissions in different models and scenarios (global models, EU-focused models and national carbon mitigation scenarios). Due to the higher reductions in energy use and carbon intensity of the end-use sectors in the national scenarios, we identify an additional mitigation potential of 26–37 Gt cumulative CO2 emissions up to 2050 compared to what is currently included in global or EU scenarios. These additional reductions could help to both reduce the need for carbon dioxide removals and bring cumulative emissions in global and EU scenarios in line with a fairness-based domestic EU budget for a 2°C target, while still remaining way above the budget for 1.5°C. Key policy insights Models used for policy advice such as global integrated assessment models or EU models fail to consider certain mitigation potential available at the level of sectors. Global and EU models assume significant levels of CO2 emission reductions from carbon capture and storage to reach the 1.5°C target but also to reach the 2°C target. Global and EU model scenarios are not compatible with a fair domestic EU share in the global carbon budget either for 2°C or for 1.5°C. Integrating additional sectoral mitigation potential from detailed national models can help bring down cumulative emissions in global and EU models to a level comparable to a fairness-based domestic EU share compatible with the 2°C target, but not the 1.5°C aspiration. © 2018, © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122593
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Duscha V.,Denishchenkova A.,Wachsmuth J.. Achievability of the Paris Agreement targets in the EU: demand-side reduction potentials in a carbon budget perspective[J]. Climate Policy,2019-01-01,19(2)