Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85059940823
论文题名: Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models
作者: Mioduszewski J.R. ; Vavrus S. ; Wang M. ; Holland M. ; Landrum L.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2019
卷: 13, 期: 1 起始页码: 113
结束页码: 124
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: annual variation
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; ensemble forecasting
; hypothesis testing
; ice retreat
; melting
; sea ice
; simulation
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: The diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied, but previous research has mostly focused on time-mean changes in sea ice rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that future interannual Arctic sea ice area variability will increase by utilizing 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) for the 1920-2100 period and augment this with simulations from 12 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both CESM-LE and CMIP5 models project that ice area variability will indeed grow substantially but not monotonically in every month. There is also a strong seasonal dependence in the magnitude and timing of future variability increases that is robust among CESM ensemble members. The variability generally correlates with the average ice retreat rate, before there is an eventual disappearance in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal in summer and autumn by late century. The peak in variability correlates best with the total area of ice between 0.2 and 0.6 m monthly thickness, indicating that substantial future thinning of the ice pack is required before variability maximizes. Within this range, the most favorable thickness for high areal variability depends on the season, especially whether ice growth or ice retreat processes dominate. Our findings suggest that thermodynamic melting (top, bottom, lateral) and growth (frazil, congelation) processes are more important than dynamical mechanisms, namely ice export and ridging, in controlling ice area variability. © Author(s) 2019. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122693
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mioduszewski J.R.,Vavrus S.,Wang M.,et al. Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models[J]. Cryosphere,2019-01-01,13(1)