globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.039
WOS记录号: WOS:000458712500001
论文题名:
Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change
作者: Burillo, Daniel1; Chester, Mikhail V.1; Pincetl, Stephanie2; Fournier, Eric D.2; Reyna, Janet3
通讯作者: Burillo, Daniel
刊名: APPLIED ENERGY
ISSN: 0306-2619
EISSN: 1872-9118
出版年: 2019
卷: 236, 页码:1-9
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Building energy modeling ; Peak demand ; Demand forecasting ; Spatial analysis ; Heat waves ; Climate change
WOS关键词: COOLING ENERGY ; CONSUMPTION ; CALIBRATION ; IMPACTS ; MARKET
WOS学科分类: Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS研究方向: Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
英文摘要:

Los Angeles County (LAC) is a large urbanized region with 9.7 million residents (as of 2010) and aging infrastructure. Population forecasts indicate that LAC will become home to an additional 1.2-3.1 million residents through 2060. Additionally, climate forecasts based upon representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicate that average air temperatures will increase by 1-4 degrees C (2-7 degrees F) in the region. Both of these factors are expected to result in higher summertime peak electricity demand due to growth in the number of buildings, the percentage of installed air conditioners (ACs), and the additional cooling load on those air conditioners. In order to understand potential power reliability issues, and support infrastructure planning efforts, a long-term peak demand forecast was developed using hourly residential and commercial (R&C) building energy models. Peak hour electricity demand was estimated to increase from 9.5 to 12.8 GW for R&C sectors, to 13.0-17.3 GW (2-36%) and 14.7-19.2 GW (16-51%) by 2060 for the population forecasts from the California Department of Finance and the Southern California Association of Governments respectively. While marginal increases in ambient air temperature due to climate change accounted for only 4-8% of future increases in peak demand, differences in annual maximum temperatures within the 20-year periods affected results by 40-66% indicating a high sensitivity to heat waves. Population growth of at least 1 million people is anticipated to occur mostly in the northern cities of Palmdale, Lancaster, and Santa Clarita, bringing an additional 0.4-1 GW of peak demand in those regions. Building and AC efficiency are anticipated to improve as national and state efficiency standards increase, and as older, less efficient units are replaced; this could offset some of the projected increases in peak demand. Additionally, development of shared wall, multi-family dwelling units could enable population growth of up to 3 million people without increasing peak demand.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/124537
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Arizona State Univ, Dept Civil Environm & Sustainable Engn, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA USA
3.Natl Renewable Energy Lab, Bldg & Thermal Syst, Golden, CO USA

Recommended Citation:
Burillo, Daniel,Chester, Mikhail V.,Pincetl, Stephanie,et al. Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change[J]. APPLIED ENERGY,2019-01-01,236:1-9
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Burillo, Daniel]'s Articles
[Chester, Mikhail V.]'s Articles
[Pincetl, Stephanie]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Burillo, Daniel]'s Articles
[Chester, Mikhail V.]'s Articles
[Pincetl, Stephanie]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Burillo, Daniel]‘s Articles
[Chester, Mikhail V.]‘s Articles
[Pincetl, Stephanie]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.