globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001050
WOS记录号: WOS:000458242000001
论文题名:
Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season
作者: Kirchmeier-Young, M. C.1,2; Gillett, N. P.2; Zwiers, F. W.1; Cannon, A. J.3; Anslow, F. S.1
通讯作者: Kirchmeier-Young, M. C.
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:1, 页码:2-10
语种: 英语
英文关键词: event attribution ; climate change ; wildfire
WOS关键词: MOUNTAIN PINE-BEETLE ; AREA ; REGIMES ; SATELLITE ; WILDFIRE ; FORESTS ; SYSTEM
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2-4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7 - 11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/124780
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada
2.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada
3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Victoria, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Kirchmeier-Young, M. C.,Gillett, N. P.,Zwiers, F. W.,et al. Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(1):2-10
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