globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.009
WOS记录号: WOS:000459951100002
论文题名:
Population growth, energy use, and the implications for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence
作者: Mullan, B.1,2; Haqq-Misra, J.1
通讯作者: Mullan, B.
刊名: FUTURES
ISSN: 0016-3287
EISSN: 1873-6378
出版年: 2019
卷: 106, 页码:4-17
语种: 英语
英文关键词: SETI ; Anthropocene ; Climate change ; Sustainability ; Fermi paradox ; Astrobiology
WOS关键词: LATE-TYPE STARS ; DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DYSON SPHERES ; CIVILIZATIONS ; EARTH ; LIMIT ; ANTHROPOCENE ; PREVALENCE ; PRINCIPLE
WOS学科分类: Economics ; Regional & Urban Planning
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics ; Public Administration
英文摘要:

Von Hoerner ("Population Explosion and Interstellar Expansion," Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, 28, 691-712, 1975; hereafter VH75) examined the effects of human population growth and predicted agricultural, environmental, and other problems from observed growth rate trends. Using straightforward calculations, VH75 predicted the "doomsday" years for these scenarios (approximate to 2020-2050), when we as a species should run out of space or food, or induce catastrophic anthropogenic climate change through thermodynamically unavoidable direct heating of the planet. Now that over four decades have passed, in this paper we update VH75. We perform similar calculations as that work, with improved data and trends in population growth, food production, energy use, and climate change. For many of the impacts noted in VH75 our work amounts to pushing the "doomsday" horizon back to the 2300 s-2400 s (or much further for population-driven interstellar colonization). This is largely attributable to using worldwide data that exhibit smaller growth rates of population and energy use in the last few decades. While population-related catastrophes appear less likely than in VH75, our continued growth in energy use provides insight into possible future issues. We find that, if historic trends continue, direct heating of the Earth will be a substantial contributor to climate change by approximate to 2260, regardless of the energy source used, coincident with our transition to a Kardashev type-I civilization. We also determine that either an increase of Earth's global mean temperature of approximate to 12 K will occur or an unreasonably high fraction of the planet will need to be covered by solar collectors by 2400 to keep pace with our growth in energy use. We further discuss the implications in terms of interstellar expansion, the transition to type II and III civilizations, SETI, and the Fermi Paradox. We conclude that the "sustainability solution" to the Fermi Paradox is a compelling possibility.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/124835
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Blue Marble Space Inst Sci, 1001 4th Ave,Suite 3201, Seattle, WA 98154 USA
2.Point Pk Univ, Dept Nat Sci Engn & Technol, 201 Wood St, Pittsburgh, PA 15222 USA

Recommended Citation:
Mullan, B.,Haqq-Misra, J.. Population growth, energy use, and the implications for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence[J]. FUTURES,2019-01-01,106:4-17
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