globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4164-9
WOS记录号: WOS:000460619200043
论文题名:
Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent
作者: Kang, Suchul1; Im, Eun-Soon2; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.3
通讯作者: Im, Eun-Soon
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:1-2, 页码:747-764
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: DIURNAL CYCLE ; SOUTHEAST-ASIA ; TROPICAL CIRCULATION ; MONSOON RAINFALL ; WINTER RAINFALL ; EL-NINO ; PRECIPITATION ; MALAYSIA ; PARAMETERIZATION ; TEMPERATURE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125042
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Ctr Environm Sensing & Modeling CENSAM, Singapore MIT Alliance Res & Technol SMART, Singapore, Singapore
2.Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Div Environm & Sustainabil, Kowloon, Acad Bldg 3594,Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.MIT, Ralph M Parsons Lab, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

Recommended Citation:
Kang, Suchul,Im, Eun-Soon,Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.. Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(1-2):747-764
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