globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4132-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000460619200017
论文题名:
Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models
作者: Dai, Aiguo1; Bloecker, Christine E.1,2
通讯作者: Dai, Aiguo
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:1-2, 页码:289-306
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Temperature ; Precipitation ; Trends ; Internal variability ; Ensemble simulations ; CESM1 ; CanESM2
WOS关键词: SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

It is known that internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends seen in observations and individual model simulations over a period of decades. This makes it difficult to quantify the forced response to external forcing. Here we analyze two large ensembles of simulations from 1950 to 2100 by two fully-coupled climate models, namely the CESM1 and CanESM2, to quantify ICV's influences on estimated trends in annual surface air temperature (Tas) and precipitation (P) over different time periods. Results show that the observed trends since 1979 in global-mean Tas and P are within the spread of the CESM1-simulated trends while the CanESM2 overestimates the historical changes, likely due to its deficiencies in simulating historical non-CO2 forcing. Both models show considerable spreads in the Tas and P trends among the individual simulations, and the spreads decrease rapidly as the record length increases to about 40 (50) years for global-mean Tas (P). Because of ICV, local and regional P trends may remain statistically insignificant and differ greatly among individual model simulations over most of the globe until the later part of the twenty-first century even under a high emissions scenario, while local Tas trends since 1979 are already statistically significant over many low-latitude regions and are projected to become significant over most of the globe by the 2030s. The largest influences of ICV come from the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and polar sea ice. In contrast to the realization-dependent ICV, the forced Tas response to external forcing has a temporal evolution that is similar over most of the globe (except its amplitude). For annual precipitation, however, the temporal evolution of the forced response is similar (opposite) to that of Tas over many mid-high latitude areas and the ITCZ (subtropical regions), but close to zero over the transition zones between the regions with positive and negative trends. The ICV in the transient climate change simulations is slightly larger than that in the control run for P (and other related variables such as water vapor), but similar for Tas. Thus, the ICV for P from a control run may need to be scaled up in detection and attribution analyses.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125044
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA
2.NASA, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA

Recommended Citation:
Dai, Aiguo,Bloecker, Christine E.. Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(1-2):289-306
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