SURFACE-HYDROLOGY MODEL
; CLIMATE-CHANGE
; PART I
; WAVES
; WARM
; EUROPE
; SUMMER
; SYSTEM
; IMPACT
; COLD
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
Heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in the future, including over Central Europe where populations are sensitive to extreme temperature. This paper studies six recent major heatwave events over Poland from 2006 through 2015 using regional-scale simulations (10-km grid spacing, hourly frequency) from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to define local-scale 2-m temperature patterns. For this purpose, a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days with maximum 2-m air temperature exceeding 30 degrees C. The WRF simulations were validated using maximum daily 2-m temperature observations from 12 meteorological stations in select Polish cities, which were selected to have even spatial coverage across the study area. Synoptic analysis of the six study events shows that the inflow of tropical air masses from the south is the primary driver of heatwave onset and maintenance, the highest temperatures (and most vulnerable areas) occur over arable land and artificial surfaces in central and western Poland, while coastal areas in the north, mountain areas in the south, and forested and mosaic areas of smaller fields and pastures of the northwest, northeast, and southeast are less affected by prolonged periods of elevated temperatures. In general, regional differences in 2-m temperature between the hottest and coolest areas is about 2-4 degrees C. Large urban areas like Warsaw, or the large complex of artificial areas in the conurbation of Silesian cities, are also generally warmer than surrounding areas by roughly 2-4 degrees C, and even up to 6 degrees C, especially during the night. Additionally, hot air from the south of Poland flows through a low-lying area between two mountain ranges (Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains)-the so-called Moravian Gate-hitting densely populated urban areas (Silesian cities) and Cracow. These patterns occur only during high-pressure synoptic conditions with low cloudiness and wind and without any active fronts or mesoscale convective disturbances.
1.Maria Curie Sklodowska Univ UMCS, Fac Earth Sci & Spatial Management, Dept Meteorol & Climatol, Al Krasnicka 2CD, PL-20718 Lublin, Poland 2.Mississippi State Univ, Dept Geosci, Starkville, MS USA
Recommended Citation:
Krzyzewska, Agnieszka,Dyer, Jamie. Local-scale analysis of temperature patterns over Poland during heatwave events[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,135(1-2):261-277