globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4160-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000460619200045
论文题名:
Low fidelity of CORDEX and their driving experiments indicates future climatic uncertainty over Himalayan watersheds of Indus basin
作者: ul Hasson, Shabeh1,2; Boehner, Juergen1; Chishtie, Farrukh3
通讯作者: ul Hasson, Shabeh
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:1-2, 页码:777-798
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model fidelity ; Himalayan watersheds ; CORDEX ; CMIP5 ; Indus basin ; UIB ; Jhelum ; Kabul
WOS关键词: ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; RAINFALL SEASONALITY ; KARAKORAM HIMALAYA ; GAUGE OBSERVATIONS ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; RIVER-BASINS ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; RESOLUTION ; SOUTH
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Assessment of future water availability from the Himalayanwatersheds of Indus Basin (Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basinUIB) is a growing concern for safeguarding the sustainable socioeconomic wellbeing downstream. This requires, before all, robust climate change information from the present-day state-of-the-art climate models. However, the robustness of climate change projections highly depends upon the fidelity of climate modeling experiments. Hence, this study assesses the fidelity of seven dynamically refined (0.44 degrees) experiments, performed under the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for South Asia (CX-SA), and additionally, their six coarse-resolution driving datasets participating in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5). We assess fidelity in terms of reproducibility of the observed climatology of temperature and precipitation, and the seasonality of the latter for the historical period (1971-2005). Based on the model fidelity results, we further assess the robustness or uncertainty of the far future climate (2061-2095), as projected under the extreme-end warming scenario of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show that the CX-SA and their driving CMIP5 experiments consistently feature low fidelity in terms of the chosen skill metrics, suggesting substantial cold (6-10 degrees C) and wet (up to 80%) biases and underestimation of observed precipitation seasonality. Surprisingly, the CX-SA are unable to outperform their driving datasets. Further, the biases of CX-SA and of their driving CMIP5 datasets are higher in magnitude than their projected changes under RCP8.5and hence under less extreme RCPsby the end of 21st century, indicating uncertain future climates for the Indus Basin watersheds. Higher inter-dataset disagreements of both CMIP5 and CX-SA for their simulated historical precipitation and for its projected changes reinforce uncertain future wet/dry conditions whereas the CMIP5 projected warming is less robust owing to higher historical period uncertainty. Interestingly, a better agreement among those CX-SA experiments that have been obtained through downscaling different CMIP5 experiments with the same regional climate model (RCM) indicates the RCMs' ability of modulating the influence of lateral boundary conditions over a large domain. These findings, instead of suggesting the usual skill-based identification of 'reasonable' global or regional low fidelity experiments, rather emphasize on a paradigm shift towards improving their fidelity by exploiting the potential of meso-to-local scale climate modelspreferably of those that can solely resolve global-to-local scale climatic processesin terms of microphysics, resolution and explicitly resolved convections. Additionally, an extensive monitoring of the nival regime within the Himalayan watersheds will reduce the observational uncertainty, allowing for a more robust fidelity assessment of the climate modeling experiments.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125068
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Hamburg, Inst Geog, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN, Hamburg, Germany
2.Inst Space Technol, Dept Space Sci, Islamabad, Pakistan
3.SERVIR Mekong, Asian Disaster Preparedness Ctr, Bangkok, Thailand

Recommended Citation:
ul Hasson, Shabeh,Boehner, Juergen,Chishtie, Farrukh. Low fidelity of CORDEX and their driving experiments indicates future climatic uncertainty over Himalayan watersheds of Indus basin[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(1-2):777-798
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