globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-017-2358-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000459226500008
论文题名:
Prediction of onset and cessation of austral summer rainfall and dry spell frequency analysis in semiarid Botswana
作者: Byakatonda, Jimmy1,2; Parida, B. P.1; Kenabatho, Piet K.3; Moalafhi, D. B.3
通讯作者: Byakatonda, Jimmy
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 135, 期:1-2, 页码:101-117
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Artificial neural network ; Climate variability ; Inter tropical convergence zone ; Length of the rain season ; Rainfed farming ; Trend analysis
WOS关键词: ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; RAINY-SEASON ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TIME-SERIES ; GROWING-SEASON ; MANN-KENDALL ; PRECIPITATION ; DROUGHT ; VARIABILITY ; HOMOGENEITY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Uncertainties in rainfall have increased in the recent past exacerbating climate risks which are projected to be higher in semiarid environments. This study investigates the associated features of rainfall such as rain onset, cessation, length of the rain season (LRS), and dry spell frequency (DSF) as part of climate risk management in Botswana. Their trends were analysed using Mann-Kendall test statistic and Sen's Slope estimator. The rainfall-evapotranspiration relationships were used in formulating the rain onset and cessation criteria. To understand some of the complexities arising from such uncertainties, artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict onset and cessation of rain. Results reveal higher coefficients of variation in onset dates as compared to cessation of rain. Pandamatenga experiences the earliest onset on 28th of November while Tsabong the latest on 14th of January. Likewise, earliest cessation is observed at Tshane on 22nd of February and the latest on 30th of March at Shakawe. The shortest LRS of 45days is registered at Tsabong whereas the northern locations show LRS greater than 100days. Stations across the country experience strong negative correlation between onset and LRS of -0.9. DSF shows increasing trends in 50% of the stations but only significant at Mahalapye, Pandamatenga, and Shakawe. Combining the LRS criteria and DSF, Kasane, Pandamatenga, and Shakawe were identified to be suitable for rainfed agriculture in Botswana especially for short to medium maturing cereal varieties. Predictions of onset and cessation indicate the possibility of delayed onset by 2-5weeks in the next 5years. Information generated from this study could help Botswana in climate risk management in the context of rainfed farming.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125105
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Botswana, Dept Civil Engn, P Bag 0061, Gaborone, Botswana
2.Gulu Univ, Dept Biosyst Engn, POB 166, Gulu, Uganda
3.Univ Botswana, Dept Environm Sci, P Bag 00704, Gaborone, Botswana

Recommended Citation:
Byakatonda, Jimmy,Parida, B. P.,Kenabatho, Piet K.,et al. Prediction of onset and cessation of austral summer rainfall and dry spell frequency analysis in semiarid Botswana[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,135(1-2):101-117
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Byakatonda, Jimmy]'s Articles
[Parida, B. P.]'s Articles
[Kenabatho, Piet K.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Byakatonda, Jimmy]'s Articles
[Parida, B. P.]'s Articles
[Kenabatho, Piet K.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Byakatonda, Jimmy]‘s Articles
[Parida, B. P.]‘s Articles
[Kenabatho, Piet K.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.