globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02431-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000469017400009
论文题名:
Storm surge return levels induced by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States
作者: Lin, Ning1; Marsooli, Reza1,2; Colle, Brian A.3
通讯作者: Lin, Ning
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 154, 期:1-2, 页码:143-158
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE WINTER ; EAST-COAST ; CMIP5 ; MODEL ; CLIMATOLOGY ; PROJECTIONS ; AMERICA ; IMPACT ; RISE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

We investigate the impact of climate change on the storm surges induced by extratropical cyclones (ETCs) between November and March. We quantify changes to the storm surge between a historical period (1979-2004) and a future period during the mid to late twenty-first century (2054-2079) for a number of major coastal cities in the Northeastern United States. Observed water levels are analyzed to estimate storm surges induced by ETCs during the historical period. A hydrodynamic model is utilized to simulate storm surges induced by ETCs projected for the future climate by seven global climate models. The biases in the hydrodynamic and climate models are calculated and removed from the simulated surge heights. Statistical methods, including the peaks-over-threshold method, are applied to estimate the storm surge return levels. We find that future projections based on most of the climate models indicate relatively small effects of climate change on ETC storm surges. The weighted-average projections over all climate models show a small increase in storm surge return levels (less than 7% increase in 10- and 50-year surge heights). However, uncertainties exist among the climate models and projections from one climate model show a substantial increase in the storm surge return levels (up to 27% and 36% increase in 10- and 50-year surge heights, respectively). These uncertainties, and likely the larger impact of sea level rise, should be accounted for in projecting the risk posted by ETC flooding.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125160
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
2.Stevens Inst Technol, Dept Civil Environm & Ocean Engn, Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA
3.SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA

Recommended Citation:
Lin, Ning,Marsooli, Reza,Colle, Brian A.. Storm surge return levels induced by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,154(1-2):143-158
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