globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02432-7
WOS记录号: WOS:000469017400013
论文题名:
Predicting high-magnitude, low-frequency crop losses using machine learning: an application to cereal crops in Ethiopia
作者: Mann, Michael L.1; Warner, James M.2; Malik, Arun S.3
通讯作者: Mann, Michael L.
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 154, 期:1-2, 页码:211-227
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NDVI ; YIELDS ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Timely and accurate agricultural impact assessments for droughts are critical for designing appropriate interventions and policy. These assessments are often ad hoc, late, or spatially imprecise, with reporting at the zonal or regional level. This is problematic as we find substantial variability in losses at the village-level, which is missing when reporting at the zonal level. In this paper, we propose a new data fusion methodcombining remotely sensed data with agricultural survey datathat might address these limitations. We apply the method to Ethiopia, which is regularly hit by droughts and is a substantial recipient of ad hoc imported food aid. We then utilize remotely sensed data obtained near mid-season to predict substantial crop losses of greater than or equal to 25% due to drought at the village level for five primary cereal crops. We train machine learning models to predict the likelihood of losses and explore the most influential variables. On independent samples, the models identify substantial drought loss cases with up to 81% accuracy by mid- to late-September. We believe the proposed models could be used to help monitor and predict yields for disaster response teams and policy makers, particularly with further development of the models and integration of soon-to-be available high-resolution, remotely sensed data such as the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel (HLS) data set.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125174
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.George Washington Univ, Dept Geog, Washington, DC 20052 USA
2.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
3.George Washington Univ, Dept Econ, Washington, DC USA

Recommended Citation:
Mann, Michael L.,Warner, James M.,Malik, Arun S.. Predicting high-magnitude, low-frequency crop losses using machine learning: an application to cereal crops in Ethiopia[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,154(1-2):211-227
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