globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4568-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000471722400005
论文题名:
Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models
作者: Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen
通讯作者: Zhou, Wen
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:1-2, 页码:81-95
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Monsoon ; Global warming ; Climate change ; Dynamical downscaling ; African easterly jet ; Tropical easterly jet
WOS关键词: PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; CLIMATOLOGY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

West Africa faces an increasing challenge related to water resources in the coming decades; hence high-confidence climate projection is crucial for the region's future. In this study, future changes in summer monsoon rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario were investigated over West Africa for the period of 2074-2099 with respect to the present-day period of 1980-2005 using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4), driven by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation models (GCMs). Through evaluation of the present climate, the RCA4 simulations and their multi-model ensemble mean (EnsMean) reasonably reproduced the climatology of the summer rainfall and associated tropospheric circulation features. In a warmer climate, summer monsoon rainfall is projected to increase in most parts of West Africa, but a decrease is expected in the northwest, around Senegal. Changes in the monsoon circulation are opposite in the lower and upper troposphere, with the tipping point at 400hPa. Specifically, a projected strengthening and northward shift is observed at the lower and mid-tropospheric level, while weakening is evident at the upper tropospheric level. A diagnosis based on a moisture budget equation reveals that the robust positive response of West African summer monsoon rainfall to global warming is largely explained by the enhancement of moisture convergence and surface evaporation.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125187
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作者单位: City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Energy & Environm, Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Akinsanola, A. A.,Zhou, Wen. Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(1-2):81-95
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