globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2613-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000475737500041
论文题名:
Intercomparison of machine learning methods for statistical downscaling: the case of daily and extreme precipitation
作者: Vandal, Thomas1; Kodra, Evan2; Ganguly, Auroop R.1
通讯作者: Vandal, Thomas
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 137, 期:1-2, 页码:557-570
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NEURAL-NETWORKS ; BIAS CORRECTION ; REGRESSION ; TEMPERATURE ; STREAMFLOW ; RESPONSES ; SELECTION ; IMPACTS ; DENSITY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Statistical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) allows researchers to study local climate change effects decades into the future. A wide range of statistical models have been applied to downscaling GCMs but recent advances in machine learning have not been explored compared to traditional approaches. In this paper, we compare five Perfect Prognosis (PP) approaches, Ordinary Least Squares, Elastic-Net, and Support Vector Machine along with two machine learning methods Multi-task Sparse Structure Learning (MSSL) and Autoencoder Neural Networks. In addition, we introduce a hybrid Model Output Statistics and PP approach by modeling the residuals of Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) with MSSL. Metrics to evaluate each method's ability to capture daily anomalies, large-scale climate shifts, and extremes are analyzed. Generally, we find inconsistent performance between PP methods in their ability to predict daily anomalies and extremes as well as monthly and annual precipitation. However, results suggest that L-1 sparsity constraints aid in reducing error through internal feature selection. The MSSL+BCSD coupling, when compared with BCSD, improved daily, monthly, and annual predictability but decreased performance at the extremes. Hence, these results suggest that the direct application of state-of-the-art machine learning methods to statistical downscaling does not provide direct improvements over simpler, longstanding approaches.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125189
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Northeastern Univ, 360 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA
2.RisQ Inc, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

Recommended Citation:
Vandal, Thomas,Kodra, Evan,Ganguly, Auroop R.. Intercomparison of machine learning methods for statistical downscaling: the case of daily and extreme precipitation[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,137(1-2):557-570
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