globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04617-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000471722400050
论文题名:
Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology
作者: Karmalkar, Ambarish V.1,2,3; Sexton, David M. H.1; Murphy, James M.1; Booth, Ben B. B.1; Rostron, John W.1; McNeall, Doug J.1
通讯作者: Karmalkar, Ambarish V.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:1-2, 页码:847-877
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Uncertainty ; Perturbed parameter ensemble ; Seamless assessment ; Statistical emulation ; Filtering parameter space ; Plausible model variants
WOS关键词: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ; PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION ; SYSTEMATIC-ERRORS ; SENSITIVITY ; ENSEMBLE ; UNCERTAINTY ; ERA ; QUANTIFICATION ; PROJECTIONS ; SIMULATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The usefulness of a set of climate change projections largely depends on how well it spans a range of outcomes consistent with known uncertainties. Here, we present exploratory work towards developing a strategy to select variants of a state-of-the-art but expensive climate model suitable for climate projection studies. The strategy combines information from a set of relatively cheap, idealized perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) experiments, and uses two criteria as the basis to select model variants for a PPE suitable for future projections: (a) acceptable model performance at two different timescales, and (b) maintaining diversity in model response to climate change. This second part of a pair of papers builds upon Part I in which we established a strong relationship between model errors at weather and climate timescales across a PPE for a variety of key variables. This relationship is used to filter out parts of parameter space that do not give credible simulations of present day climate, while minimizing the impact on ranges in forcings and feedbacks that drive model responses to climate change. We use statistical emulation to explore the parameter space thoroughly, and demonstrate that about 90% can be filtered out without affecting diversity in global-scale climate change responses. This leads to the identification of plausible parts of parameter space from which model variants can be selected for projection studies. We selected and ran 50 variants from the plausible parameter combinations and validated the emulator predictions. Comparisons with the CMIP5 MME demonstrate that our approach can produce a set of plausible model variants that span a relatively wide range in model response to climate change. We also highlight how the prior expert-specified ranges for uncertain model parameters are constrained as a result of our methodology, and discuss recommendations for future work.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125197
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作者单位: 1.Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
2.Univ Massachusetts, Northeast Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
3.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA

Recommended Citation:
Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,Sexton, David M. H.,Murphy, James M.,et al. Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(1-2):847-877
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