globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04700-9
WOS记录号: WOS:000471722400057
论文题名:
Future projections of heat waves over India from CMIP5 models
作者: Rohini, P.1,3; Rajeevan, M.2,3; Mukhopadhay, P.1,3
通讯作者: Rohini, P.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:1-2, 页码:975-988
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Heat wave ; CMIP5 ; Geopotential height ; Land surface processes ; El Nino
WOS关键词: TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE ; AUSTRALIA ; VARIABILITY ; CLIMATOLOGY ; EXTREMES ; FREQUENT ; LONGER
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Past studies using observational data suggested an increase in day time temperatures and frequency and duration of heat waves over India during the pre-monsoon season (April-June). In this study, the characteristics (frequency and duration) of heat waves over India in future warming scenario has been examined using nine CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario and the period 2020-2064 were used for the analysis to examine the possible changes in the characteristics of heat waves. In spite of moderate biases in day time temperatures, the CMIP5 models showed modest skill in realistic simulation of observed heat waves in terms of spatial pattern and frequency. The models suggest an increase of about two heat waves and increase of 12-18days in heat wave duration during the period 2020-2064. In the future climate change scenario, southern parts of India and coastal part of India which are presently unaffected by heat waves, are likely to be affected by heat waves. The spatial trend analysis of Heat Wave frequency (HWF) and Heat wave Duration (HWD) suggested that both the HWF and HWD will increase significantly over central and northwest India by 0.5 events per decade and 4-7days per decade respectively. The study also suggests that the future increase in heat waves is caused due to strengthening of mid-tropospheric high and associated subsidence over central and northwest India. Land surface processes like depletion of soil moisture and increased sensible heat fluxes are also responsible for the increase in heat waves. The CMIP5 models also suggest that El Nino Modoki events may be responsible for the prolonged and more frequent future heat waves over India in the future climate scenario.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125209
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune, Maharashtra, India
2.Minist Earth Sci, New Delhi, India
3.Savitribai Phule Pune Univ, Dept Atmospher & Space Sci, Pune, Maharashtra, India

Recommended Citation:
Rohini, P.,Rajeevan, M.,Mukhopadhay, P.. Future projections of heat waves over India from CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(1-2):975-988
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