globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2667-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000475737500089
论文题名:
Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal
作者: Santos, Monica1; Fonseca, Andre1; Fragoso, Marcelo2; Santos, Joao A.1
通讯作者: Santos, Monica
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 137, 期:1-2, 页码:1305-1319
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; EURO-CORDEX ; TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; INDEXES ; PATTERNS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Recent and future changes in precipitation extremes over Portugal were studied. Trends in selected precipitation indices were calculated on a seasonal scale for the period of 1950-2003. Considering the same indices, this study also assessed possible changes under future climatic conditions (2046-2065). Furthermore, trends and projections for the future were evaluated using a single/unified index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). The results revealed statistically significant drying trends in spring, mainly in northern and central Portugal, while weak wetting trends were detected in autumn. The EPSI trends also depicted a decrease of extreme precipitation in spring over central Portugal and a slight increase in autumn over northern Portugal and nearby Lisbon. On the other hand, climate change projections revealed a decrease in precipitation, mainly over northwestern Portugal, whereas the contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase, mostly in southern Portugal. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is also projected to increase throughout Portugal. EPSI showed enhanced susceptibility for most Portuguese municipalities, which may be associated with increased vulnerability to flash floods. Climate change projections by municipality for both EPSI and CDD are an important decision support tool for civil protection and for risk management in Portugal.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125232
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, CITAB, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci, UTAD, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal
2.Univ Lisbon, Inst Geog & Spatial Planning, Edificio IGOT,Rua Branca Edmee Marques, P-1600276 Lisbon, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Santos, Monica,Fonseca, Andre,Fragoso, Marcelo,et al. Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,137(1-2):1305-1319
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