globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4581-9
WOS记录号: WOS:000471722400015
论文题名:
Climate change or climate regimes? Examining multi-annual variations in the frequency of precipitation extremes over the Argentine Pampas
作者: Tye, Mari R.1; Katz, Richard W.1; Rajagopalan, Balaji2,3
通讯作者: Tye, Mari R.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:1-2, 页码:245-260
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SYNOPTIC ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS ; HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL ; LA PLATA BASIN ; SOUTH-AMERICA ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A recent period of increased precipitation over the Argentinian Pampas expanded the boundary of rain-fed agriculture. However, such changes may not be sustainable if they arose from transient climate regime shifts. Considerable research exists on trends and cycles in sub-daily to annual precipitation metrics including the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. However, efforts to identify wetter and drier phases (or regimes) in this region are scant. This article aims to bridge that gap and advance our understanding of the multi-annual behavior of regional precipitation extremes, which can have the greatest impacts. It is unlikely that all extreme events are drawn from a single probability distribution or generated by the same physical processes. Hence, hidden mixtures of Poisson distributions are fitted to several precipitation frequency metrics to explore whether the annual to decadal variations in extreme precipitation frequency are greater than anticipated from a single system, and representative of regime shifts. Statistically significant improvements in the fit over single distributions were found for statistical mixture models of the frequency of very wet days, and the frequency of wet spells. This supports the hypothesis that multiple weather regimes exist giving rise to wetter or drier epochs. Posterior probabilities of hidden states from the fitted mixture distributions were used to identify wetter and drier years for comparison with sea surface temperature anomalies. This confirmed the presence of two distinct regimes, supporting other research, into the dynamical influences of precipitation behavior in the Argentine Pampas.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125239
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
2.Univ Colorado, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
3.Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

Recommended Citation:
Tye, Mari R.,Katz, Richard W.,Rajagopalan, Balaji. Climate change or climate regimes? Examining multi-annual variations in the frequency of precipitation extremes over the Argentine Pampas[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(1-2):245-260
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Tye, Mari R.]'s Articles
[Katz, Richard W.]'s Articles
[Rajagopalan, Balaji]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Tye, Mari R.]'s Articles
[Katz, Richard W.]'s Articles
[Rajagopalan, Balaji]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Tye, Mari R.]‘s Articles
[Katz, Richard W.]‘s Articles
[Rajagopalan, Balaji]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.