globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4588-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000471722400023
论文题名:
A comparative assessment of climate change impacts on drought over Korea based on multiple climate projections and multiple drought indices
作者: Lee, Moon-Hwan1; Im, Eun-Soon1,2; Bae, Deg-Hyo3
通讯作者: Im, Eun-Soon ; Bae, Deg-Hyo
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:1-2, 页码:389-404
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought projection ; Multi-model ensemble ; Korean river basin ; Dynamical downscaling ; Standardized drought index
WOS关键词: HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS ; BIAS CORRECTION ; SOUTH-KOREA ; HYDROCLIMATIC INTENSITY ; RIVER-BASIN ; MODEL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; RESPONSES ; PATTERNS ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

This study assesses future changes in drought characteristics in response to different emission scenarios over Korea based on multiple climate projections and multiple drought indices. To better resolve regional climate details and enhance confidence in future changes, multi-model projections are dynamically downscaled, and their systematic biases are statistically removed. Bias-corrected climate data are directly used to calculate the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and they are fed into a hydrological model to generate runoff used for the calculation of the standardized runoff index (SRI). The analysis is focused on changes in the frequencies and severities of severe or extreme droughts measured by the SPI, SPEI, and SRI for the Han Riverand Nakdong River basins. Fine-scale ensemble projections reveal robust changes in temperatures that monotonically respond to emission forcings, whereas precipitation changes show rather inconsistent patterns across models and scenarios. Temperature and precipitation shifts lead to changes in evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff, which modulate the drought characteristics. In general, the SPEI shows the most robust pattern with significant increases in both drought frequency and severity. This result is mainly due to the excessive potential ET that is hypothetically estimated without considering water availability. While the SPI based on only precipitation exhibits behavior different from that of the SPEI, the SRI that considers actual ET produces an intermediate level of changes between the SPI and SPEI. Compared to the large uncertainty of the frequency changes that overwhelm the change signal due to inconsistency across models and indices, the severity of future drought is likely to be exacerbated with enhanced confidence.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125246
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
2.Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Div Environm & Sustainabil, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.Sejong Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Lee, Moon-Hwan,Im, Eun-Soon,Bae, Deg-Hyo. A comparative assessment of climate change impacts on drought over Korea based on multiple climate projections and multiple drought indices[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(1-2):389-404
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