globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4210-7
WOS记录号: WOS:000460902200018
论文题名:
Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices
作者: Seo, Seung Beom1; Kim, Young-Oh2; Kim, Youngil2; Eum, Hyung-Il3
通讯作者: Seo, Seung Beom
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:3-4, 页码:1595-1611
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change scenarios ; Scenario selection ; Global circulation model ; Climate extremes indices ; Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang algorithm
WOS关键词: EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; GCM SCENARIOS ; ENSEMBLE ; CMIP5 ; INITIALIZATION ; TEMPERATURE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

When selecting a subset of climate change scenarios (GCM models), the priority is to ensure that the subset reflects the comprehensive range of possible model results for all variables concerned. Though many studies have attempted to improve the scenario selection, there is a lack of studies that discuss methods to ensure that the results from a subset of climate models contain the same range of uncertainty in hydrologic variables as when all models are considered. We applied the Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang (KKZ) algorithm to select a subset of climate change scenarios and demonstrated its ability to reduce the number of GCM models in an ensemble, while the ranges of multiple climate extremes indices were preserved. First, we analyzed the role of 27 ETCCDI climate extremes indices for scenario selection and selected the representative climate extreme indices. Before the selection of a subset, we excluded a few deficient GCM models that could not represent the observed climate regime. Subsequently, we discovered that a subset of GCM models selected by the KKZ algorithm with the representative climate extreme indices could not capture the full potential range of changes in hydrologic extremes (e.g., 3-day peak flow and 7-day low flow) in some regional case studies. However, the application of the KKZ algorithm with a different set of climate indices, which are correlated to the hydrologic extremes, enabled the overcoming of this limitation. Key climate indices, dependent on the hydrologic extremes to be projected, must therefore be determined prior to the selection of a subset of GCM models.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125290
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作者单位: 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Engn Res, Seoul, South Korea
2.Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul, South Korea
3.AEP, Environm Monitoring & Sci Div, Calgary, AB, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Seo, Seung Beom,Kim, Young-Oh,Kim, Youngil,et al. Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(3-4):1595-1611
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