globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2455-z
WOS记录号: WOS:000464905800042
论文题名:
Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP
作者: Sahany, Sandeep; Mishra, Saroj Kanta; Salunke, Popat
通讯作者: Sahany, Sandeep
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 135, 期:3-4, 页码:1423-1433
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: DATA SET
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A new bias-corrected statistically downscaled product, namely, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), has recently been developed by NASA to help the scientific community in climate change impact studies at local to regional scale. In this work, the product is validated over India and its added value as compared to its CMIP5 counterpart for the NCAR CCSM4 model is analyzed, followed by climate change projections under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario using the two datasets for the variables daily maximum 2-m air temperature (T-max), daily minimum 2-m air temperature (T-min), and rainfall. It is found that, overall, the CCSM4-NEX-GDDP significantly reduces many of the biases in CCSM4-CMIP5 for the historical simulations; however, some biases such as the significant overestimation in the frequency of occurrence in the lower tail of the T-max and T-min still remain. In regard to rainfall, an important value addition in CCSM4-NEX-GDDP is the alleviation of the significant underestimation of rainfall extremes found in CCSM4-CMIP5. The projected T-max from CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are in general higher than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5, suggesting that the risks of heat waves and very hot days could be higher than that projected by the latter. CCSM4-NEX-GDDP projects the frequency of occurrence of the upper extreme values of historical T-max to increase by a factor of 100 towards the end of century (as opposed to a factor of 10 increase projected by CCSM4-CMIP5). In regard to rainfall, both CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP project an increase in annual rainfall over India under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario progressively from the near term through the far term. However, CCSM4-NEX-GDDP consistently projects a higher magnitude of increase and over a larger area as compared to that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5. Projected daily rainfall distributions from CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP suggest the occurrence of events that have no historical precedents. Worth noting is that the extreme daily rainfall values projected by CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are two to three times larger than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125293
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Indian Inst Technol Delhi, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India

Recommended Citation:
Sahany, Sandeep,Mishra, Saroj Kanta,Salunke, Popat. Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,135(3-4):1423-1433
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Sahany, Sandeep]'s Articles
[Mishra, Saroj Kanta]'s Articles
[Salunke, Popat]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Sahany, Sandeep]'s Articles
[Mishra, Saroj Kanta]'s Articles
[Salunke, Popat]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Sahany, Sandeep]‘s Articles
[Mishra, Saroj Kanta]‘s Articles
[Salunke, Popat]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.