WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
; PRECIPITATION
; CHINA
; MONSOON
; TEMPERATURE
; SIMULATE
; IMPACTS
; SYSTEM
; JET
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
This study evaluates the performance of climate models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the observation, the interannual variability of EASR during 1979-2005 is underestimated by the CMIP5 with a range of 0.86 similar to 16.08%. Based on bias correction of CMIP5 simulations with historical data, the reliability of future projections will be enhanced. The corrected EASR under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 increases by 5.6 and 7.5% during 2081-2100 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005, respectively. After correction, the areas with both negative and positive anomalies decrease, which are mainly located in the South China Sea and central China, and southern China and west of the Philippines, separately. In comparison to the baseline, the interannual variability of EASR increases by 20.8% under RCP4.5 but 26.2% under RCP8.5 in 2006-2100, which is underestimated by 10.7 and 11.1% under both RCPs in the original CMIP5 simulation. Compared with the mean precipitation, the interannual variability of EASR is notably larger under global warming. Thus, the probabilities of floods and droughts may increase in the future.
1.Hubei Meteorol Adm, Hubei Meteorol Serv Ctr, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 2.China Meterol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Heavy Rain, Hubei Key Lab Heavy Rain Monitoring & Warning Res, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Ren, Yongjian,Song, Lianchun,Xiao, Ying,et al. Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,135(3-4):911-920